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Garthwaite has collaborated with Professor John Crawford, a neuropsychologist at the University of Aberdeen, to develop novel statistical methods for drawing inferences on the performance of an individual patient. The methods have become the standard way of analysing single-patient studies in neuropsychology and are widely used by clinicians to compare individual patients with normative data.
The methods have also been implemented in easy-to-use software, freely accessible over the web, and have been linked to databases containing the results of large normative samples on psychological test batteries. They have been the focus of review papers for clinical practice that have strongly recommended their use.
Research by Lisa Emberson has led to tighter controls on air pollutant precursor emissions of ozone (O3) across Europe benefiting crop and forest productivity, and grassland species composition. Emberson's research led to new risk assessment methods, based on knowledge of atmospheric exchange processes and plant eco-physiology, which assess O3 uptake and related damage using novel flux-based `Critical Levels'. These new methods are being used to optimise emission reduction policy by 26 parties (member states) who have signed and ratified the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Gothenburg Protocol established under the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP).
Research in quantum-mechanical methods, conducted at the School of Chemistry at Cardiff University, has resulted in the creation of an innovative software package called Molpro. Molpro provides the ability to calculate from first principles (ab initio) the properties of molecular matter. It is unique and differs from other quantum chemistry packages because, using local electron correlation methods, it significantly reduces the increase of the computational cost with molecular size. This means highly accurate computations can be performed for much larger molecules than with most other programs, and the screening of far wider libraries of potential new materials is enabled. Consequently, Molpro is extremely valuable to the global chemical and pharmaceutical industries and has been endorsed and applied by major international corporations that manufacture products that are used by a wide range of industries (including cosmetics, automotive and construction). Examples are BASF, Mitsubishi Chemical Group, Sasol and Nissan Chemical Industries.
The software is distributed under licence through Cardiff University and resellers, operating in China, Japan, Brazil, Taiwan, Russia, Poland and the USA. During the REF period, it has generated over £1.75M in revenue, and is used by over 650 organisations worldwide. Accordingly the impact claimed is extensive economic gain and impact on practitioners and professional services.
A team at the University of Liverpool has undertaken research that has informed practice and policy worldwide in the management of patients presenting with newly diagnosed epilepsy, which has achieved international impact on health. Seizures are common and 3-5% of the population will be given a diagnosis of epilepsy during their lifetime. Decisions about when to start treatment, and if so with which drug are crucial and can have a significant effect on outcomes for the individual and have significant economic consequences for society. The research includes the undertaking and analysis of data from randomised controlled trials. The data analysis is based on the statistical research initiated by Dr Paula Williamson while in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Liverpool between 1996 and 2000. The research identified the most appropriate first line treatments for patients with newly diagnosed epilepsy, addressing both clinical and cost effectiveness. This work has underpinned national policy and triggered the most recent update of the NICE (National Institute for Clinical Excellence) epilepsy guidelines in 2012.
Onchocerciasis (river blindness) is a debilitating disease of major public health importance in the wet tropics. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) seeks to control or eliminate the disease in 19 countries. Accurate mapping of Loiasis (eye-worm) was a requirement for implementation of APOC's mass-treatment prophylactic medication programme in order to mitigate against serious adverse reactions to the Onchocerciasis medication in areas also highly endemic for Loiasis. Model-based geostatistical methods developed at Lancaster were used to obtain the required maps and contributed to a change in practice of APOC in a major health programme in Africa. Our maps are used to plan the delivery of the mass-treatment programme to rural communities throughout the APOC countries, an estimated total population of 115 million.
In a series of papers published from 1999 on, Aitken (Maxwell Institute) and collaborators applied Bayesian statistics to develop a methodology for the quantification of judicial evidence derived from forensic analyses. They proposed and implemented procedures for (i) determining the optimal size of samples that should be taken from potentially incriminating material (such as drugs seized); and (ii) the estimation of likelihood ratios characterising evidence provided by multivariate hierarchical data (such as the chemical composition of crime-scene samples). Their procedures have been recommended in international guideline documents (including a 2009 publication by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime) and have been routinely used by forensic science laboratories worldwide since 2008. The research has therefore had an impact on the administration of justice, leading to a better use of evidence and accompanying judicial and economic benefits. Examples are given from laboratories in Australia, Sweden and The Netherlands.