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The School of Mathematics at Cardiff University has developed important statistical and mathematical models for forecasting consumer buying behaviour. Enhancements to classical models, inspired by extensively studying their statistical properties, have allowed us to exploit their vast potential to benefit the sales and marketing strategies of manufacturing and retail organisations. The research has been endorsed and applied by Nielsen, the #1 global market research organisation that provides services to clients in 100 countries. Nielsen has utilised the models to augment profits and retain their globally leading corporate position. This has led to a US$30 million investment and been used to benefit major consumer goods manufacturers such as Pepsi, Kraft, Unilever, Nestlé and Procter & Gamble. Therefore the impact claimed is financial. Moreover, impact is also measurable in terms of public engagement since the work has been disseminated at a wide range of national and international corporate events and conferences. Beneficiaries include Tesco, Sainsbury's, GlaxoSmithKline and Mindshare WW.
The safe operation of ships is a high priority task in order to protect the ship, the personnel, the cargo and the wider environment. Research undertaken by Professor Alexander Korobkin in the School of Mathematics at UEA has led to a methodology for the rational and reliable assessment of the structural integrity and thus safety of ships and their cargos in severe sea conditions. Central to this impact is a set of mathematical models, the conditions of their use, and the links between them, which were designed to improve the quality of shipping and enhance the safety of ships. The models, together with the methodology of their use, are utilised by the ship certification industry bringing benefits through recognised quality assurance systems and certification.
The methodological and applied work on micro-econometric demand analysis outlined here has been repeatedly used by the UK Competition Commission (since 2002) and the Co-operation & Competition Panel (now Monitor) of the UK Department of Health (since 2009) in their respective competition analyses, and by the Hong Kong Consumer Council in its Public Estate Supermarket Study (since 2011). It contributed to the European Commission White Paper on the quantification of antitrust damages (2010), underpinning some of the econometric methodology proposed there to assess cartel damages in EU Courts. Beckert's work in the area of micro-econometric demand analysis connects micro-economic demand theory with various econometric methodologies to assess demand-side substitution in the presence of taste heterogeneity. His research is disseminated through articles in peer-reviewed academic journals, policy articles, and through consultation by antitrust authorities, think tanks and economic consultancies.
Research conducted at the School of Mathematics at Cardiff University has engineered lifesaving, improvements to UK healthcare systems. New mathematical models, accounting for the complexity and diversity of the health system, have been created and applied in a variety of contexts to markedly enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of a wide range of healthcare services — at policy, commissioning and operational levels. The extensive benefits include:
This work has been disseminated nationally and internationally, in the media and at a range of events designed to engage the public with Mathematics. Therefore the impacts claimed in this case study are health, economic benefits and public engagement.
The Computational Optimization Group (COG) in the Department of Computing produced new models, algorithms, and approximations for supporting confident decision-making under uncertainty — when computational alternatives are scarce or unavailable. The impact of this research is exemplified by the following:
A two-dimensional flood inundation model called LISFLOOD-FP, which was created by a team led by Professor Paul Bates at the University of Bristol, has served as a blueprint for the flood risk management industry in the UK and many other countries. The documentation and published research for the original model, developed in 1999, and the subsequent improvements made in over a decade of research, have been integrated into clones of LISFLOOD-FP that have been produced by numerous risk management consultancies. This has not only saved commercial code developers' time but also improved the predictive capability of models used in a multimillion pound global industry that affects tens of millions of people annually. Between 2008 and 2013, clones of LISFLOOD-FP have been used to: i) develop national flood risk products for countries around the world; ii) facilitate the pricing of flood re-insurance contracts in a number of territories worldwide; and iii) undertake numerous individual flood inundation mapping studies in the UK and overseas. In the UK alone, risk assessments from LISFLOOD-FP clones are used in the Environment Agency's Flood Map (accessed on average 300,000 times a month by 50,000 unique browsers), in every property legal search, in every planning application assessment and in the pricing of the majority of flood re-insurance contracts. This has led to more informed and, hence, better flood risk management. A shareware version of the code has been available on the University of Bristol website since December 2010. As of September 2013, the shareware had received over 312 unique downloads from 54 different countries.
Research at the Maxwell Institute led by Radcliffe from 1996 onwards has developed new statistical models of the response of customers to targeted marketing. Traditional customer targeting misallocates resources by failing to estimate the change in the probability of customer behaviour that results from a given marketing action. This results in three kinds of waste: treating customers for whom intervention is ineffective, failing to treat customers for whom it would be effective, and treating customers for whom the intervention is counterproductive. The new models, known as uplift models, predict the change in behaviour, allowing lower target volumes, larger changes in customer behaviour, and suppressing counterproductive interventions. Uplift modelling has been commercialised in the form of software and consulting services from 2000: it is the core of the software Portrait Uplift sold by Pitney Bowes since 2010. The research has therefore had a major economic impact on Pitney Bowes and earlier companies selling uplift software and services, and on their customers which include US Bank and phone operators T-Mobile Austria and Telenor.
Air pollution poses significant threats to both the environment and to human health and the World Health Organization estimates that 800,000 deaths per year could be related to ambient air pollution. Formulating air quality legislation and understanding its effect on human health requires accurate information on ambient concentrations of air pollution and how these translate into exposures actually experienced by individuals (personal exposures).
Our research provides a framework for estimating personal exposures for specific susceptible sub-populations, such as the elderly and those suffering from respiratory diseases. This framework also provides novel means of assessing uncertainty associated with the estimates of exposures. Furthermore, it allows changes in exposures to be assessed under hypothetical scenarios reflecting potential regulatory changes.
These models were used in the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recent review of ozone standards that resulted in a reduction in the statutory limits of ozone in the United States. The EPA stated that "These changes will improve both public health protection and the protection of sensitive trees and plants" [C].
This impact case study is based on a Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) between the School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Kent and KROHNE Ltd, a world leading manufacturer of industrial measuring instruments. These precision instruments (typically flow meters and density meters) need to be calibrated accurately before being used and this is an expensive and time-consuming process.
The purpose of the KTP was to use Bayesian methodology developed by Kent statisticians to establish a novel calibration procedure that improves on the existing procedure by incorporating historical records from calibration of previous instruments of the same type. This reduces substantially the number of test runs needed to calibrate a new instrument and will increase capacity by up to 50%.
The impact of the KTP, which was graded as `Outstanding', has been to change the knowledge and capability of the Company, so that they can improve the performance of their manufacturing process by implementing this novel calibration method. This has been achieved by adapting the underpinning Kent research to the specific context of the calibration problem, by running many calibrations to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in practice, and by supporting the implementation of the new calibration method within the Company's core software.
Moreover, the project has changed the Company's thinking on fundamental science, particularly industrial mathematics. The value of historical data, and the usefulness of Bayesian methods, is now widely appreciated and training for staff in Bayesian Statistics is being introduced. Thus the project has not only changed the protocols of the Company, it has also changed their practice.
Improvements in digital screen technology early in this millennium facilitated cost effective use of digital signage (DS) (screens in a public place showing video). The problem was that no research was available on the extent to which consumers welcome DS or on the effectiveness of any advertisements transmitted using this medium.
Brunel research has led to most UK shopping malls now carrying DS and to retail DS ads using more entertaining or affective content that increases `footfall' to advertisers and greater loyalty especially from first time shoppers. The research led to a general impact in terms of improved customer experience and specific impact on sales growth and revenue. The result is greater enjoyment and satisfaction for shoppers and higher sales for advertisers and retailers.