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Making It Count: Improving the Census

Summary of the impact

Statistical techniques developed at the University of Southampton have transformed the accuracy with which Census data can estimate the UK population's size and characteristics, delivering far-reaching socio-economic impact. The methodologies developed by Southampton have increased the accuracy and availability of the 2011 UK Census data, not only for the Office for National Statistics but for central government, local authorities, the NHS and the private sector, who all use the data as a basis for policy decisions. Preserving the privacy of the UK population, Southampton's work allowed, for the first time, the release of highly localised data, which is used by local authorities to target resources efficiently and meet the demands imposed by the Localism and Equality Acts.

Submitting Institution

University of Southampton

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Medical and Health Sciences: Public Health and Health Services
Economics: Applied Economics

The construction and adoption of data zones as a new geography of Scotland

Summary of the impact

Successful planning in Scotland requires a set of geographical units for which data can be collected and analysed. Researchers at St Andrews have developed a new `small area' geography for Scotland. `Data zones' (DZs) provide a scientifically-based template for data mapping and has been adopted as the default geography used by public and private organisations to display and analyse data on topics as diverse as economic planning, health, education and transport, thus impacting how and where policy is enacted. To be statistically appropriate these units have to be compact, homogenous, with approximately the same size population and publically acceptable. This is not a trivial task, involving millions of potentially different solutions. In 2001, Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (SNS) commissioned St Andrews to study how such units should be defined and to develop a methodology for creating them. Using the experience and skills developed over many years working in this area, the team developed a methodology and established the official small area geography of Scotland.

Submitting Institution

University of St Andrews

Unit of Assessment

Geography, Environmental Studies and Archaeology

Summary Impact Type

Societal

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Economics: Applied Economics

Estimating local populations with far greater accuracy using administrative data

Summary of the impact

There is growing evidence that official population statistics based on the decennial UK Census are inaccurate at the local authority level, the fundamental administrative unit of the UK. The use of locally-available administrative data sets for counting populations can result in more timely and geographically more flexible data which are more cost-effective to produce than the survey-based Census. Professor Mayhew of City University London has spent the last 13 years conducting research on administrative data and their application to counting populations at local level. This work has focused particularly on linking population estimates to specific applications in health and social care, education and crime. Professor Mayhew developed a methodology that is now used as an alternative to the decennial UK Census by a large number of local councils and health care providers. They have thereby gained access to more accurate, detailed and relevant data which have helped local government officials and communities make better policy decisions and save money. The success of this work has helped to shape thinking on statistics in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland and has contributed to the debate over whether the decennial UK Census should be discontinued.

Submitting Institution

City University, London

Unit of Assessment

Business and Management Studies

Summary Impact Type

Political

Research Subject Area(s)

Medical and Health Sciences: Public Health and Health Services
Economics: Applied Economics

Bayesian methods for large scale small area estimation (SAE)

Summary of the impact

Small area estimation (SAE) describes the use of Bayesian modelling of survey and administrative data in order to provide estimates of survey responses at a much finer level than is possible from the survey alone. Over the recent past, academic publications have mostly targeted the development of the methodology for SAE using small-scale examples. Only predictions on the basis of realistically sized samples have the potential to impact on governance and our contribution is to fill a niche by delivering such SAEs on a national scale through the use of a scaling method. The impact case study concerns the use of these small area predictions to develop disease-level predictions for some 8,000 GPs in England and so to produce a funding formula for use in primary care that has informed the allocation of billions of pounds of NHS money. The value of the model has been recognised in NHS guidelines. The methodology has begun to have impact in other areas, including the BIS `Skills for Life' survey.

Submitting Institution

Plymouth University

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Societal

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Economics: Econometrics

Defining functional areas for policy development and implementation

Summary of the impact

Coombes' research to advance spatial-analysis methodology has re-defined Travel-to-Work Areas (TTWAs) — the only official UK boundaries defined by academics — and produced three distinct strands of impact.

  • Use of Boundaries: TTWA boundaries are widely used by the UK government and others because they accurately map economic geography; they are used to select areas for major funding support.
  • Use of Concept: TTWAs are cited as `bench-mark' functional economic area definitions in the guidance for implementing UK policies such as that on Local Economic Partnerships (LEPs).
  • Use of Methodology: Countries in three continents have adapted the TTWA method to define functional areas for their official statistics.

Submitting Institution

Newcastle University

Unit of Assessment

Geography, Environmental Studies and Archaeology

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Economics: Applied Economics

Establishing a blueprint for administrative data based longitudinal studies in the UK

Summary of the impact

The Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS) is a pioneering study, combining census, civil registration, health and education data (administrative data). It has established an approach that allows the legal and ethical use of personal, sensitive information by maintaining anonymity within the data system. This approach has become a model for the national data linkage systems that are now being established across the UK. The SLS has also enabled policy analysts to monitor key characteristics of the Scottish population in particular health inequalities (alerting policy makers to Scotland's poor position within Europe), migration (aiding economic planning) and changing tenure patterns (informing house building decisions). Finally, the study has become fully embedded in Scotland's National Statistical agency, allowing it to produce new informative statistical series.

Submitting Institution

University of St Andrews

Unit of Assessment

Geography, Environmental Studies and Archaeology

Summary Impact Type

Political

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Medical and Health Sciences: Public Health and Health Services
Economics: Applied Economics

Small Area Estimation: Data Provision for Smarter Local Policymaking

Summary of the impact

Southampton statisticians have made a valuable contribution to government policy formulation across the UK and further afield to areas of North America and Europe. Novel methods for delivering more accurate estimates of socio-economic indicators at neighbourhood level have given local authorities, national government agencies and MPs the tools to implement more effective policies designed to assist the poorest communities and strengthen community cohesion. The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) has described Southampton's contribution as `a breakthrough', while the Mexican government agency, CONEVAL, regards this work as `the most prestigious' of its kind.

Submitting Institution

University of Southampton

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Applied Economics, Econometrics

A Numbers Game: Revamping Official Statistics on Migration and Population

Summary of the impact

In the UK and the rest of Europe, public bodies and policymakers have struggled to quantify migration and make accurate population forecasts because of inconsistent data from a variety of disparate sources. The University of Southampton has demonstrated how, via the use of statistical modelling, conceptual frameworks and migration modelling, policymakers can radically improve the information they glean from the data sources at their disposal. The team successfully guided the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in overhauling their methodologies, finally making them compliant with European Union (EU) regulations. The wider impact of accurate numbers is significant for public service provision, planning, and the UK economy. Furthermore, ONS data feeds into numerous areas of public policy, hence the provision of accurate estimates by Southampton researchers has significant reach and impact on such policies.

Submitting Institution

University of Southampton

Unit of Assessment

Social Work and Social Policy

Summary Impact Type

Societal

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Medical and Health Sciences: Public Health and Health Services
Economics: Applied Economics

Impact on the Statistical Confidentiality Practices of Data Stewardship Organisations

Summary of the impact

Research at the University of Manchester (UoM) has developed new approaches, methods and algorithms to improve the statistical confidentiality practices of data stewardship organisations (DSOs), such as the UK's Office for National Statistics. The research and its products have had significant impacts on data dissemination practice, both in the UK and internationally, and have been adopted by national statistical agencies, government departments and private companies. The primary beneficiaries of this work are DSOs, who are able to both disseminate useful data products, and protect respondent confidentiality more effectively. Secondary beneficiaries are respondents, whose confidentiality is better protected, and the research community, as without `gold standard' disclosure risk analysis, data holders can be overcautious.

Submitting Institution

University of Manchester

Unit of Assessment

Sociology

Summary Impact Type

Societal

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Economics: Applied Economics

Changing the way government identifies small areas of need and distributes funding in the UK and beyond

Summary of the impact

Research into more accurate methods for measuring deprivation and `need' at the neighbourhood, `small area level', has led to older methods being abandoned. This has shaped government policy and practice, leading to the UK, local and central government changing where, geographically, to focus millions of pounds of spend. Our methods (Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and Health Poverty Index (HPI)) are now used extensively in public, political and media discourses as the main reference point for any discussion of the distribution of need across the UK. The IMD has now also been adopted by the governments of South Africa, Nambia and Oman.

Source: The Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/31/deprivation-map-indices-multiple#_
Source: The Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/31/deprivation-map-indices-multiple#_

Submitting Institution

University of St Andrews

Unit of Assessment

Geography, Environmental Studies and Archaeology

Summary Impact Type

Societal

Research Subject Area(s)

Medical and Health Sciences: Public Health and Health Services
Economics: Applied Economics
Studies In Human Society: Policy and Administration

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