Log in
Atmospheric science research in the Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge has played a leading role in demonstrating the depletion of the ozone layer following anthropogenic emissions of halogenated compounds and other Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS). This research has been a key input into the series of assessment reports that have made the case to policy makers for the strengthening of the Montreal Protocol. The research underpinning these reports has made a vital contribution to a number of changes to the Protocol that have ensured a more rapid phase-out of a wider range of ODS and their replacements, leading to significant global health and climate benefits during the REF period. Researchers at Cambridge have helped to raise global awareness of these benefits, helping to maintain support for the Protocol among policy makers and the public, and supported European legislation to limit the environmental impact of ODS and their replacements.
The international Montreal Protocol limits the production of stratospheric-ozone depleting substances that contain chlorine and bromine. York researchers used the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) satellite to monitor the decay of halogen-containing molecules in the stratosphere and to re-evaluate their atmospheric lifetimes. This York research also determined that oceans represent a vast reservoir of organohalogens, which are released to air and impact significantly on ozone destruction. The research results have been incorporated into the conclusions of the World Meteorological Organization/United Nations Environment Programme (WMO/UNEP) Scientific Assessments on Ozone Depletion, the pre-eminent knowledge base used for international policy and domestic legislation. Experimental infrastructure created in this York research now contributes to UK Government obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and informs it of long-term atmospheric change.
Research carried out at the University of Leeds has led to the development of a system for predicting severe air turbulence at airports and elsewhere. The research modelled highly localised `rotor streaming' turbulence which is too small-scale to predict using today's numerical weather prediction models. The Met Office now uses the highly efficient 3DVOM computer prediction model, based on the Leeds research, to improve its operational weather forecasting, especially for providing warnings of `gustiness' to the public and airports and to highlight risks of overturning of high-sided vehicles. In addition, the model is used by forecasters to predict dangerous turbulence at Mount Pleasant Airport in the Falkland Islands, and has led to the prevention of around five flight diversions per year at an estimated cost saving of £1.25 million.
Halocarbons in the atmosphere can be both ozone-depleting and greenhouse gases. Our halocarbon research has formed a vital part of the science that has underpinned the Montreal Protocol on `Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer'. Whilst this Protocol was originally ratified in 1987, it is amended at regular intervals based on the latest scientific evidence as reported through quadrennial World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Ozone Assessments. Our research has contributed to the Assessments in 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006 and 2010, as well as IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessments. These assessments have led directly to reductions in emissions of a large number of halocarbons and consequently major climate and health benefits worldwide; e.g. UEA research on methyl bromide and halons has led, via Montreal Protocol amendments, to a decline in atmospheric bromine between 2008-2013.
Successful policy formulation and effective action on ozone depletion and climate change, both of which have profound environmental implications, depend on the availability of credible data on atmospheric gases. Research conducted in the School of Chemistry at the University of Bristol between 1992 and 2013 has played a leading role in global efforts to achieve reliable, long-term measurement of climatically important gases such as CO2, CH4 and N2O. When combined with models of atmospheric gas transport, these observations provide an independent means of assessing natural and man-made emissions. This work is used by the UK's Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) for monitoring compliance with international and domestic legislation, identifying priorities for improving inventory accuracy, assessing the UK's progress towards targets set in the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols, evaluating the impact of policy, and informing international negotiations. These data have been central to recent World Meteorological Office (WMO) Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion produced between 2007 and 2010 and to the Nobel Prize-winning Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment of Climate Change published in 2007.
Research performed at York during 2003-6 revealed the unexpectedly high level of organic emissions by trees in the UK during the hottest periods, catalysing the formation of smog. This research on causes of summertime air pollution informed UK government policy reports in 2008/9. It also resulted in on-going changes in modelling of biogenic emissions by DEFRA (Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs), embedding the knowledge into all future government policy evaluations of air pollution. The Met Office and others have now improved their air quality forecasts provided to the public by adding the effect of natural emissions. The beneficiaries of the York research include government and those people at health risk from low air quality. The impact spans public policy, environmental policy and health.
Our research since 1993 has led directly to demonstrable improvements in the physical representation of atmospheric particulates in the suite of Met Office numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. These models have had enormous reach and significance across the REF period in both public sector and commercial Met Office activities. Our measurements impact directly on the model prediction of air quality, extreme pollution events (for fire brigade, police and public agencies), visibility, cloud cover, rainfall, and snowfall (for defence and the public weather service, commercial aviation, utilities, road and rail sectors).
The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano, Iceland caused prolonged closure of European airspace, costing the global airline industry an estimated $200 million per day and disrupting 10 million passengers. We have developed and tested models that predict the dispersal of volcanic ash and developed instrumentation to monitor ash clouds during flight bans and used it to test the models. Our research played a key role in establishing the need for a flight ban and in the adoption of a more flexible approach to its staged lifting as the emergency continued. It also led to increased levels of readiness and to new emergency procedures being put in place across Europe which have minimised the economic costs and human inconvenience without an unacceptable rise in the risks to passengers and crew. The new procedures safely eliminated unnecessary disruption to flights in the latter days of the crisis and during the subsequent eruption of another Icelandic volcano, Grímsvötn in 2011.
The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions in Iceland were stark reminders that global society is increasingly vulnerable to volcanic hazards. Research at the University of Leeds has shown that volcanic gases and airborne particles could be a significant health hazard to humans — potentially more fatal than seasonal `flu. Leeds scientists used computer models to demonstrate that a long-lasting, gas-rich eruption in Iceland could degrade air quality and lead to well over 100,000 deaths across Europe. In January 2012, the number of potential fatalities was used as evidence by the UK government for the decision to add large-magnitude effusive Icelandic eruptions to the UK National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies as a high priority risk with potentially widespread effects on health, agriculture and transport. Leeds researchers continue to advise the UK government on the mitigation of potential volcanic hazards through the Civil Contingencies Secretariat.
Research at the University of Leeds has underpinned the company Lhasa Ltd. which has made widely available the toxicity prediction software currently known as Derek Nexus. The use of Derek Nexus by large pharmaceutical companies to support drug development is effectively universal. Toxicology prediction software has led to changes in guidelines issued by regulatory authorities and to industry-wide changes to the investigation of the toxicity of trace impurities. These changes have reduced the resources needed for experimental investigation of toxicity, and have increased revenues derived from launched drugs by extending their patent period of exclusivity. Lhasa Ltd. derives income in support of its charitable aims from Derek Nexus , and a related product Meteor Nexus (Meteor) also based on research undertaken in Leeds. The company reported revenues over £5.4M in 2012 and employs 71 highly qualified staff.