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This case study concerns the work of Professor David Spiegelhalter as Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge. Based on his research on risk communication, he has made numerous contributions to public service, influencing the way health screening information is given to the public, and public policy on breast implants and plain packaging of cigarettes. In addition, through lectures, Twitter, radio and TV appearances he has become a popular commentator on risk issues and reached a substantial segment of the UK public. He has had a continuing impact on the way that statistics, risk and uncertainty are discussed in the UK today.
Dr Toby Ord is the founder of an international organisation called Giving What We Can. This organization is dedicated to the fight against poverty in the developing world. Its members pledge to give at least 10% of their income to aid and to direct their giving to the organisations that have a demonstrated ability to use their incomes most efficiently. The impetus for the founding of the organization was provided by Dr Ord's early work in ethics. He subsequently undertook additional research into how his ethical ideas could be put into practice. The fruits both of this research and of related research by other Oxford philosophers appear on the organisation's website, where, through a combination of pure and applied philosophy, the ethical case for making the pledge is urged. The arguments advanced have proved to be extremely persuasive: many people have been moved by them, and to great effect. The organisation has over 326 members, from seventeen countries, who together have pledged to give over US $130,000,000 to charity.
The Life Market is a major new global capital market for transferring longevity risk from corporate pension plans and annuity providers to long-term capital market investors, such as sovereign wealth funds and endowments, in exchange for a longevity risk premium (paid to the investors by the institutions laying off their longevity risk). Previously, the only source of longevity risk hedging was the insurance industry which, given that so many people are living much longer than anticipated, now has insufficient capacity to deal with this risk (estimated at $25trillion) on a global basis. The size of their future pension liabilities now present serious threats to the solvency of many companies. The longevity bonds and swaps designed by Professor David Blake at the Pensions Institute at Cass Business School, City University London, were integral to the creation and operation of the Life Market. The adoption of these bonds and swaps by investors has served to establish a global capital market investor base contributing towards the long-term availability of longevity solutions, benefiting the insurance and pensions industries, employers and, in turn, employees through greater security of their pensions in retirement.
Research by Reimer Kühn (RK) and collaborators has produced a framework to study and quantify the influence of interactions on risk in complex systems, including default risk in economy-wide networks of financial exposures. This work has had impact on practitioners and professional services dealing with financial risk, including research groups at central banks, who — partly in response to the recent financial crisis — have adopted such network oriented approaches to analyse and quantify systemic risk. The Financial Stability Division at the Bank of England has, for instance, developed refined versions of the network-oriented models proposed by Kühn and collaborators to specifically assess risk in the British banking system.
The UKCIP Adaptation Wizard is an accessible decision-support resource that enables adaptation planning in the context of climate change within the UK, Europe and internationally at national, sub-national and organisational levels. The Wizard stems directly from research carried out by UKCIP researchers in Oxford. The Wizard is being promoted by the UK Climate Ready programme, is the basis of the European Climate-ADAPT adaptation support tool, and has inspired the development of decision-support tools in Australia, Germany and Slovenia. The impact of, and desire for, the Wizard stems from its basis in credible science and practical experiences of a wide spectrum of policy and practice users, as well as the co-production of its delivery through the UKCIP website.
Research by Cathcart, McNeil (both Maxwell Institute) and Morrison (Barrie & Hibbert) during the period 2008-2012 has developed a methodology based on least squares Monte Carlo to value complex insurance liabilities and manage their risks. This methodology has been adopted by Barrie & Hibbert (B&H, part of Moody's Analytics) and has enabled the company to develop an internationally leading proposition for valuing insurance products. This has generated £2.5M in revenue since 2011, through implementation in 5 new products and use in 12 new consulting projects.
This case study charts the influence of the Risk On / Risk Off (RORO) paradigm, developed in research at the University of Oxford in collaboration with investment bank HSBC. Since 2008, RORO has had a significant economic impact on HSBC as well as wider impact on the thinking and actions of investors and other global market participants. Having begun as a specialised research tool within HSBC's foreign exchange team, the RORO methodology was publicised in the advice that HSBC supply to a wide range of major fund managers, corporate institutions and central banks. The research has led directly to a change in the way that asset managers think about investment decisions, with consequent impact on the investment and risk management strategies they undertake. RORO is regularly featured in the financial press and is becoming increasingly mainstream, with coverage in national and international media aimed at retail investors.
QRISK is a new algorithm which predicts an individual's risk of cardiovascular over 10 years. It was developed using the QResearch database and is in routine use across the NHS. It is included in national guidelines from NICE and the Department of Health and in the GP quality and outcomes framework. It is incorporated into > 90% of GP computer systems as well as pharmacy and secondary care systems. The web calculator has been used >500,000 times worldwide. ClinRisk Ltd was incorporated in 2008 to develop software to ensure the reliable widespread implementation of the QRISK algorithm into clinical practice.