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Research by Professor Wilby since 1993 has led to the development of regional climate modelling techniques, climate risk assessment frameworks, and adaptation planning approaches for long- lived water and energy infrastructure. Benefits were delivered through public domain software, practitioner training, and technical advice to policy-makers. This case study provides examples of impact conveyed via these services to national and international agencies, non-governmental organisations and commercial partners who are formulating strategies to manage exposure of their portfolios to climate risks. The work helped build technical capacities in climate risk management and adaptation options appraisal, particularly in vulnerable parts of Asia and the Middle East.
A novel approach to climate science has resulted in over 260,000 members of the public worldwide choosing to engage in a climate modelling project. By contributing resources that require their time and attention, they have become `citizen scientists'. The project has resulted in greater interest, understanding and engagement with climate science by participants; wider public discussion of climate science; and influence on policy and practice. Over 3000 people, including professionals in developing countries, have benefitted through education and training. The project has also advanced the development and awareness of `volunteer computing'.
University of Southampton research has been crucial in informing and stimulating worldwide debate on geoengineering — the possible large-scale intervention in the Earth's climate system in order to avoid dangerous climate change. Climate modellers at Southampton helped to reveal the potential extent of the fossil fuel "hangover" — the long-term damaging effects expected from anthropogenic CO2 emissions centuries or even millennia after they end. This work led Professor John Shepherd FRS to initiate and chair a Royal Society study, whose 2009 report, Geoengineering the Climate: Science, government and uncertainty, is the global benchmark document on geoengineering strategies, influencing UK and foreign government policy.
Over one quarter of the estimated 886 million undernourished people in the world live in sub-Saharan Africa and their lives and livelihoods depend critically on rain-fed agriculture. However this region has lacked the equipment and the infrastructure to monitor rainfall. Over the past 20 years, the Unit's TAMSAT (Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite Data and Ground-Based Observations) research group has developed a reliable and robust means for monitoring rainfall, appropriate for use in Africa. In addition, the Unit pioneered the use of such data to predict crop yields over large areas. TAMSAT data and methods are now used in food security (to anticipate drought and predict crop and livestock yields); in health planning (to predict outbreaks of rain-promoted diseases such as malaria); in aid (to guide the allocation and distribution of relief food and water); and in economic planning (to plan mitigation activities and investment in infrastructure). The Unit's programme of development and validation has extended the method to all of Africa, at all times of year. Our work with national meteorological services in Africa has helped them to build their own capabilities and to both contribute to TAMSAT and exploit it. The data provided by TAMSAT has had major impact in increasing the resilience of African populations to weather and climate, saving and improving the quality of lives, and strengthening economies in developing nations.
Researchers in the Global Environmental Modelling and Earth Observation (GEMEO) group at Swansea University have used satellite data to improve weather forecasts and climate predictions. Using observations of the Earth's land surface from NASA's orbiting Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) flying on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, Swansea University has worked directly with two leading meteorological agencies — the UK Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) — to refine the way in which land is represented in their numerical weather prediction models. Improved weather forecasting is of clear benefit to society, facilitating day-to-day planning by the public, agriculture, commerce, utility suppliers and transport sectors, as well as preparation for extreme weather events such as floods, heat waves and droughts. The Met Office provides daily weather forecasts for the UK, while the ECMWF model is routinely used by over 30 countries for weather, aviation planning and extreme event warning. The Met Office states that the research presented here has resulted in significantly improved weather forecasts, in particular of rainfall and temperature, and more realistic climate simulations to inform the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The ECMWF reports improvement of precipitation forecast, increasing predicted summer rainfall by 7%, and its variability, which is relevant to flood and drought forecast, increased by 30%.
Research conducted in UCL's Department of Statistical Science has led to the development of a state-of-the-art software package for generating synthetic weather sequences, which has been widely adopted, both in the UK and abroad. The synthetic sequences are used by engineers and policymakers when assessing the effectiveness of potential mitigation and management strategies for weather-related hazards such as floods. In the UK, the software package is used for engineering design; for example, to inform the design of flood defences. In Australia it is being used to inform climate change adaptation strategies. Another significant impact is that UCL's analysis of rainfall trends in southwest Western Australia directly supported the decision of the state's Department of Water to approve the expansion of a seawater desalination plant at a cost of around AUS$450 million. The capacity of the plant was doubled to 100 billion litres per year in January 2013 and it now produces nearly one third of Perth's water supply.
A novel large-area process-based crop simulation model developed at the University of Reading and published in 2004 has been used to explore how climate change may affect crop production and global food security. The results of Reading's modelling work have been used as evidence to support the case for action on climate change for international agreements and used by the UK Government to inform various areas of policy and, in particular, to help frame its position on climate change at international negotiations. The database and knowledge from this model also informed the development of Reading's innovative web-based tool that locates sites where the climate today is similar to the projected climate in another location - providing insight into potential adaptation practices for crop production in the future by linking to present-day examples. This tool has been used to inform and train farmers and policy-makers in developing countries and has supported policy implementation of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture.
As the realities of climate change have become more widely accepted over the last decade, decision makers have requested projections of future changes and impacts. Founded in 2002, the Centre for Analysis of Time Series (CATS) has conducted research revealing how the limited fidelity of climate models reduces the relevance of cost-benefit style management in this context: actions based on ill-founded projections (including probabilistic projections) can lead to maladaptation and poor policy choice. CATS' conclusions were noted in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report and led in turn to the toning down of the UK Climate Projections 2009 and the 2012 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Members of the insurance sector, energy sector, national security agencies, scientific bodies and governments have modified their approaches to climate risk management as a direct result of understanding CATS' research. Attempts to reinterpret climate model output and design computer experiments for more effective decision support have also resulted.
Newcastle's research has shaped national policy and practice on the management of flooding and agricultural pollution, and international policy and practice in the developing world on managing forested catchments and sustainable water resources management. We show evidence that our research has:
Exeter's Centre for Energy and the Environment has created novel probabilistic weather files for 50 locations across the UK, consisting of hourly weather conditions over a year, which have been used by the construction industry to test resilience of building designs to climate change. They have already had significant economic impact through their use in more than £3bn worth of infrastructure projects, for example, Great Ormond Street Hospital, Leeds Arena, and the Zero Carbon Passivhaus School. The weather files are widely available to professionals and endorsed by internationally leading building simulation software providers such as Integrated Environmental Solutions.