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Birkbeck research on improved mapping of seismic hazards has led to changes in working practices at Italian civil service institutions and the Bank of Greece. In particular, the research has enabled these institutions to make more informed assessments of seismic hazard through the use of five parameters that were not previously considered. Communication of research findings through meetings and websites as part of a new Knowledge Exchange Network has also resulted in improved understanding about earthquake hazard within industry and the financial sector in the UK.
The School of Mathematics at Cardiff University has developed important statistical and mathematical models for forecasting consumer buying behaviour. Enhancements to classical models, inspired by extensively studying their statistical properties, have allowed us to exploit their vast potential to benefit the sales and marketing strategies of manufacturing and retail organisations. The research has been endorsed and applied by Nielsen, the #1 global market research organisation that provides services to clients in 100 countries. Nielsen has utilised the models to augment profits and retain their globally leading corporate position. This has led to a US$30 million investment and been used to benefit major consumer goods manufacturers such as Pepsi, Kraft, Unilever, Nestlé and Procter & Gamble. Therefore the impact claimed is financial. Moreover, impact is also measurable in terms of public engagement since the work has been disseminated at a wide range of national and international corporate events and conferences. Beneficiaries include Tesco, Sainsbury's, GlaxoSmithKline and Mindshare WW.
Garratt's research on methods for quantifying the uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic forecasts, uncertainty which arises from not knowing the true model of the economy and from having to use inaccurate data, has been applied by Central Banks and national statistical agencies in their forecasting exercises and their analysis of policy interventions. Notably, Norges Bank (the central bank of Norway) has developed a system called the System for Averaging Models, which they use when they make macroeconomic forecasts and when they predict the effects of possible monetary policy actions, which incorporates Garratt's results.
Garratt's research provides new methods to allow for uncertainty about the 'true' model by using combinations of different possible models, when making forecasts. His research provides new procedures to take `data uncertainty' into account, when forecasts have to be based on real-time data (that is, inaccurate data which is available to the policymaker when a forecast is produced but which is revised later on). Garratt's research quantifies the effect of this uncertainty on forecasts by constructing probability density functions. Central banks and statistical agencies have applied his findings when making forecasts and undertaking policy analysis. Garratt's research has been disseminated through refereed journal articles, conference presentations, consultancy work with policy makers, and presentations to policy makers, including an invited presentation to HM Treasury.
Economic gains by oil and gas companies, improvements in professional practice in hydrocarbon exploration, and environmental benefits from identifying CO2 disposal sites have been achieved through a Cardiff-led consortium with industry. Building on research carried out since 2004, ten of the largest oil companies in the World have contributed to and benefited from understanding how faulted caprocks behave under specific geological conditions. Research at Cardiff has shown which families of faults and fractures make caprocks highly permeable, thus improving Industry's ability to predict if caprocks are able to prevent oil and gas reaching the surface.
Impact: Economic benefits have been derived from the MTEM Limited spin-out company, which has been owned since 2007 by Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS). These include a commercial marine application of the MTEM (Multi-Transient ElectroMagnetic) method offshore Tunisia in 2008, successfully discovering hydrocarbons before drilling and the 2012 launch by PGS of a fully-towed commercially-viable marine MTEM system.
Significance and reach: Approximately 180 man-years of employment, with a value of more than $15M, have been provided in Edinburgh over the period January 2008 — December 2012.
Underpinned by: Research into electromagnetic survey methods, undertaken at the University of Edinburgh (1999 onwards), which led directly to the creation of MTEM Limited.
A long-term research programme into landslides and rockfalls by DU researchers, focused on the use of novel field and laboratory techniques, has had impact on UK and foreign government authorities, NGOs, and businesses. The work has provided frameworks for managing hazard associated with deep-seated landslides in New Zealand and a landslide-dammed lake in northern Pakistan. Research on coastal cliff erosion in North Yorkshire has provided critical support for high-value mining activities at the UK's largest non-hydrocarbon extractive mine, and has underpinned local government strategies for shoreline hazard assessment and management.
Research by Professor Leonard Smith and the LSE Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS) on forecasting in non-linear and often chaotic systems, with particular attention to weather, has led to advances in three areas: 1) national and international weather industry products and services that are built upon state-of-the-art research and knowledge, 2) dissemination of state-of-the-art practice in forecast production and verification to national, regional and local weather centres around the world, and 3) the introduction of, and new applications in, state-of-the-art forecasting methods in industries facing high uncertainty and risk, e.g. insurance and energy.
The Cambridge University Centre for Risk in the Built Environment (CURBE) investigates techniques to identify, monitor and assess risk. Since 1997, CURBE's research contributed to real- world applications that reduce detrimental impacts of natural and manmade hazards, including the recent Haiti earthquake. Collaborators and users of the underpinning research include the British Council, the Government Office for Science, the US Geological Survey and Federal Emergency Management Agency in the USA, UN Habitat and private modellers and insurance companies involved in risk such as Risk Management Solutions and Willis Re.
Our research team has developed new approaches to classifying demand series as `intermittent' and `lumpy', and devised new variants of the standard Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting, which improve forecast accuracy and stock performance. These approaches have impacted the forecasting software of Syncron and Manugistics, through the team's consultancy advice and knowledge transfer. Subsequently, this impact has extended to Syncron International and JDA Software, which took over Manugistics. These companies' forecasting software packages have a combined client base turnover of over £200 billion per annum, and their clients benefit from substantial inventory savings from the new approaches adopted.
Large-amplitude horizontally propagating internal solitary waves commonly occur in the interior of the ocean. This case study presents evidence to demonstrate the impact of research conducted by Professor Grimshaw at Loughborough University on the development and utilisation of Korteweg- de Vries (KdV) models of these waves, which has formed the paradigm for the theoretical modelling and practical prediction of these waves.
These waves are highly significant for sediment transport, continental shelf biology and interior ocean mixing, while their associated currents cause strong forces on marine platforms, underwater pipelines and submersibles, and the strong distortion of the density field has a severe impact on acoustic signalling.
The theory developed at Loughborough University has had substantial impact on the strategies developed by marine and naval engineers and scientists in dealing with these issues.