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Professor David Leece's research on household decision making, risk and mortgage design had a significant influence on a fundamental review of the United Kingdom's mortgage market carried out in 2003-4, and consequently has had a major continuing impact on: (i) understanding the role of mortgage market economics in the financial crisis of 2007-8; and (ii) the ability of a global investment bank (and the banking sector more widely) to understand, value and hedge risk in securitised mortgage debt.
The Personal Finance Research Centre (PFRC) at the University of Bristol conducted a major research programme that shaped UK financial inclusion policy and informed research and policy internationally. PFRC carried out seminal research to measure the level and nature of financial exclusion in the UK. Subsequent studies looked at ways of improving access to banking, credit, insurance and savings that could reduce the `poverty premium' paid by low-income households. PFRC's research directly informed UK central government policy which resulted in the successful achievement of a shared government-banking industry target to halve the number of adults in households without a bank account (from two million to 890,000) and funding to extend affordable credit union loans and savings products to an additional one million low-income people.
Research at Aberystwyth has enhanced the capacity of forecasters to calibrate the scale of the impact on consumer spending of movements in house prices. Specifically research has provided improvements in the methodology used for estimating the impact of housing market shocks on consumer spending .This has impacted upon policy debates, including those in Central Banks, and informed methods of forecasting the impact of house prices on household economic behaviour. Thus a clearer understanding of an important macro-economic transmission mechanism has been provided. The research has also helped implementation of policy by assisting forecasters to calibrate the scale of the impact on consumer spending growth of movements in house prices, in particular taking into account the importance of controlling for expectations, and the distinction between behaviour in response to unanticipated versus anticipated housing market fluctuations.
Research carried out at the University of Southampton into banking, economic growth and development has made Professor Richard Werner a trusted source of advice for economic policy-makers at the highest level, for example for the Financial Services Authority, the Independent Banking Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England. Through articles, books and many media contributions, he has promoted a greater public understanding of economics and the financial crisis. His credit creation analysis has also been adopted by two investment funds in their portfolio management, leading to financial gains for investors, outperforming the FTSE100.
Oxford research on consumption, credit and housing has played a central role in guiding the policy advice provided to UK government departments, planners and regional bodies on housing affordability and housing provision and on policies to support homeowners. The research has provided policymakers worldwide with important insights into the key role of credit and housing markets in the recent global financial crisis and the lessons for central bank modelling and the design of monetary policy.
As part of our commitment to public sociology (see REF3a), we have prioritised making Edinburgh sociological research on financial crises available to wider audiences: financial practitioners, policy makers and interested members of the general public. This has been primarily via six essays by Donald MacKenzie in the London Review of Books (LRB) and two invited articles in the Financial Times, listed in section 5.3. The impact of this research is in enhancing cultural understanding of finance and contributing to critical public debate. Evidence of its significance and reach includes: (a) public recognition (eg Prospect magazine naming MacKenzie amongst the 25 intellectuals with most impact on the "public conversation" about the financial crisis); (b) articles by others in prominent sources (the Financial Times and Economist) drawing on his work; (c) use of the Edinburgh University research in a major US corporate lawsuit; (d) reprints of the LRB articles eg in French and German public affairs magazines, in the booklets accompanying a Swedish exhibition and a Belgian art video, and in two financial-practitioner magazines.
Research by the School's Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) on the monetary transmission mechanism has been influential in improving the design, implementation and effectiveness of the monetary policies of a number of central banks, including the Bank of England, Banque de France and the European Central Bank. The research has influenced changes in the way that official monetary aggregates are measured so as to capture the impact of non-bank financial institutions on the money supply and credit availability, and in better understanding of how monetary policy affects different interest rates. This in turn has allowed for improved control by central banks of their policy targets, and for better understanding of the effects of their monetary policies on economic activity and inflation.
Alliance research has been used by the UK and Scottish governments to direct more of the £10bn p.a. public investment in affordable and social housing towards higher demand growth regions. It has produced a range of affordability-based housing needs models which have been commended as exemplars of good practice guidance for local authorities and adopted by industry consultancies. One tool, used to assess policy options in the context of HM Treasury's 2010 Spending Review, has been described by the Department for Communities and Local Government as "invaluable" and stimulated the development of an equivalent model for New Zealand, influencing investment by the state housing agency, Housing New Zealand, in assets worth $15bn. The research has also led to the cost-effective targeting of low cost and shared home ownership programmes and stronger use of planning powers to deliver affordable housing across the UK and Ireland.
Research on risk assessment of SMEs conducted at the University of Edinburgh Business School (2005-current) in conjunction with the international credit industry has improved understanding of SME behaviour with a view to assisting lending bodies in their decision-making. It has led to refinements in the process of developing commercial credit risk models by providing valuable additional details to enhance existing models. It has developed methodologies now used by some of the leading lenders [text removed for publication] to cut the cost of providing credit, thereby making more credit available to SMEs. The reach of the work has extended across 349 credit practitioners from 38 countries.
Between 2008 and 2011 Essex researchers were funded by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) to investigate the determinants and effects of an individual's `financial capability'. Since 2010 the results of this research have informed Money Advice Service initiatives, under the direction of the FSA, to increase the financial capability of people negotiating significant life events. The research has also raised awareness among mental health providers and policy makers of the benefits that financial management skills have in building resilience and improving wellbeing. In particular, the Money Advice Service used the team's findings to develop an online service for people experiencing divorce/separation and a redundancy guide for people faced with job loss. The research also influenced the current government's policy objectives surrounding wellbeing and child poverty.