Summary of the impact

Impacts: I) Enhanced public engagement with, and understanding of, climate mitigation by individuals, delivered through two successful popular science publications and sustained bodies of media and outreach work. II) Public policy formation related to climate change mitigation.

Significance and reach: Impacts of the popular science books include >5,500 sales of a children's book (2009 - 2011) and documented household-level behaviour changes in energy usage. The European Commission issued new directives on energy saving appliances in December 2008.

Underpinned by: Research into the role of individuals in climate change mitigation, undertaken at the University of Edinburgh (2001 onwards).

Summary of the impact

Tyndall-Manchester's research into UK aviation emissions was instrumental in overturning the prevailing orthodoxy, which regarded aviation as an unproblematic, small source of greenhouse gas emissions. Identifying drivers of growth and key characteristics of aviation's emerging emissions trajectory demonstrated that aviation could soon dominate national emissions if left unchecked. Tyndall-Manchester's research contributed to aviation's inclusion in sub-national, national and international climate policies. Specifically, it was highly influential in debates leading to including international aviation in the UK's 2050 emissions target; bringing aviation into the European Union's Emission Trading System. It continues to inform debate around future UK airport expansion, and is used to guide campaigning objectives of major environmental NGOs and lobby groups.

Summary of the impact

The UK's Climate Change Bill (2008) proposed a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of 60% by 2050. Tyndall-Manchester's research concluded this target was inconsistent with the government's repeated commitment to a temperature rise of no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. It demonstrated a minimum 80% reduction was necessary; scientifically-robust policies must be based on `cumulative emissions' (carbon budgets); and that targets should include emissions from aviation and shipping. All three recommendations are now explicitly enshrined in primary legislation, with the responsible Secretary of State acknowledging the "signal contribution" of Tyndall-Manchester's research to the 2008 Climate Change Act.

Summary of the impact

Human activity leads to the emission of many greenhouse gases that differ from carbon dioxide (CO₂) in their ability to cause climate change. International climate policy requires the use of an "exchange rate" to place emissions of such gases on a "CO₂-equivalent" scale. These exchange rates are calculated using "climate emission metrics" (hereafter "metrics") which enable the comparison of the climate effect of the emission of a given gas with emissions of CO₂. Research in the Unit has contributed directly to (i) the calculation of inputs required for such metrics, (ii) the compilation of listings of the effects for a large number of gases and (iii) the consideration of alternative metric formulations. During the assessment period this work has been used in the implementation of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and in decisions and discussions (which began in 2005) on the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol's second commitment period (2013-2020), as well to intergovernmental debate on aspects of the use of metrics in climate agreements.

Summary of the impact

Results from climate physics research at the University of Oxford have demonstrated that targets for cumulative carbon emissions, rather than greenhouse gas concentrations, are a more effective approach to limiting future climate change. This new approach and the resulting `trillionth tonne' concept have had substantial political and economic implications. Impacts since 2009 include (a) stimulus to policy developments; (b) influence on the business decisions of Shell e.g. to invest in a $1.35bn carbon capture and storage facility; and (c) significant public and media debate with a global reach.

Summary of the impact

Information on the potential impacts of climate change across the world, and on the effects of policies designed to reduce emissions, is fundamental to inform the development of climate mitigation and adaptation policy. Research conducted at the Unit has been critical to the establishment of a target 80% cut in UK carbon emissions by 2050, as enforced by the Climate Change Act (2008), and provided an affirmation of the relevance of the 2f0b0C global mean temperature rise target central to national and international climate mitigation policy. Research into the global consequences of climate change, particularly for water resources and river flooding, has been used by the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) to assess the impacts of un-mitigated climate change and the effects of different mitigation policy options.

Summary of the impact

A comparative methodology to assess the impact of climate change in different countries, implemented by Gosling for a report commissioned by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), informed EU negotiations at the 2011 UN climate change conference in Durban, South Africa. The conference concluded with the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action - a `road map' by which global legal agreement on climate change is to be implemented no later than 2015. For the first time, government ministers and their advisers attending an international conference were able to compare the impact of climate change in different countries, including those where scientific institutions have limited research capacity.

Summary of the impact

Hope's research in developing the PAGE2002 model of climate change has been used extensively by government agencies in the UK and US, as well as the IMF and the international community in order to improve their calculations for global carbon emissions and setting carbon emissions targets. The model was used in the UK government's Eliasch Review, in order to calculate the costs and benefits of actions to reduce global deforestation; by the US Environmental Protection Agency, in order to calculate the marginal impact of one tonne of CO₂ emissions; and the IMF, whose calculations using the PAGE2002 model form the basis for their guidance on carbon pricing.

Summary of the impact

This case study highlights the impact of LSE research on national and international carbon pricing policy. This includes a fundamental change in the way the UK government sets a carbon price for policy and project appraisal, and its approach to carbon trading in Europe. LSE work has also had impact beyond the UK, in particular on legislating — for the first time — policies to price carbon in strategically important countries across the world, including Australia, China, Mexico and South Korea.

Summary of the impact

University of Southampton research has been crucial in informing and stimulating worldwide debate on geoengineering — the possible large-scale intervention in the Earth's climate system in order to avoid dangerous climate change. Climate modellers at Southampton helped to reveal the potential extent of the fossil fuel "hangover" — the long-term damaging effects expected from anthropogenic CO₂ emissions centuries or even millennia after they end. This work led Professor John Shepherd FRS to initiate and chair a Royal Society study, whose 2009 report, Geoengineering the Climate: Science, government and uncertainty, is the global benchmark document on geoengineering strategies, influencing UK and foreign government policy.