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UOA10-11: Risk On / Risk Off: from academic research to financial market staple

Summary of the impact

This case study charts the influence of the Risk On / Risk Off (RORO) paradigm, developed in research at the University of Oxford in collaboration with investment bank HSBC. Since 2008, RORO has had a significant economic impact on HSBC as well as wider impact on the thinking and actions of investors and other global market participants. Having begun as a specialised research tool within HSBC's foreign exchange team, the RORO methodology was publicised in the advice that HSBC supply to a wide range of major fund managers, corporate institutions and central banks. The research has led directly to a change in the way that asset managers think about investment decisions, with consequent impact on the investment and risk management strategies they undertake. RORO is regularly featured in the financial press and is becoming increasingly mainstream, with coverage in national and international media aimed at retail investors.

Submitting Institution

University of Oxford

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Applied Economics, Econometrics
Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services: Banking, Finance and Investment

Effects of Interactions on Risk

Summary of the impact

Research by Reimer Kühn (RK) and collaborators has produced a framework to study and quantify the influence of interactions on risk in complex systems, including default risk in economy-wide networks of financial exposures. This work has had impact on practitioners and professional services dealing with financial risk, including research groups at central banks, who — partly in response to the recent financial crisis — have adopted such network oriented approaches to analyse and quantify systemic risk. The Financial Stability Division at the Bank of England has, for instance, developed refined versions of the network-oriented models proposed by Kühn and collaborators to specifically assess risk in the British banking system.

Submitting Institution

King's College London

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Economics: Econometrics
Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services: Banking, Finance and Investment

Improving the way consumer credit risk is assessed

Summary of the impact

Credit scoring, the process of estimating the risk of lending to consumers, has traditionally estimated the likelihood of default over a fixed period, usually 12 months. Research carried out at Southampton's School of Management has led to a gradual shift by many financial institutions in the UK and elsewhere towards an alternative method that estimates default over any period. This approach provides accurate risk estimates over any time period. It also allows for the inclusion in the "scorecard" of economic conditions and the lending rates charged — features whose absence from previous scorecards was identified as contributing to the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

Submitting Institution

University of Southampton

Unit of Assessment

Business and Management Studies

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Economics: Applied Economics
Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services: Banking, Finance and Investment

Smarter regulation of financial markets

Summary of the impact

LSE research on endogenous risk has had impact at both the macro and micro level. At the macro level, it provided input for the design of the counter-cyclical measures and systemic risk surcharges in the Basel III regulations in financial markets. It also provided a significant input to the G20 agenda on financial stability. At the micro level, the research has had a significant role in shaping the thinking and recommendations of the UK Foresight Report on "The Future of Computer Trading in Financial Markets". Through this, the work had a direct impact on Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) II, the EU legislation that governs how EU financial service markets operate. The original EC proposal for trading halts in volatile markets — Minimum Resting Times (MRT) — to regulate high frequency trading was dropped and the Foresight proposal of time stamps based on synchronised atomic clocks across trading venues was adopted.

Submitting Institution

London School of Economics & Political Science

Unit of Assessment

Business and Management Studies

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Economics: Econometrics
Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services: Banking, Finance and Investment

The ethics of finance and business

Summary of the impact

This case study looks at the impact on the international finance industry and big business of research conducted at Heythrop College by Catherine Cowley. Cowley's work is transforming the ethical framework with which some of the most powerful corporations in the world operate and how they understand their role in society, as well as influencing the direction and content of the public debate over the ethics of finance and business.

Submitting Institution

Heythrop College

Unit of Assessment

Theology and Religious Studies

Summary Impact Type

Societal

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Economics: Applied Economics
Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services: Banking, Finance and Investment

Improving the social performance of microfinance globally

Summary of the impact

Microfinance — financial services for people excluded from mainstream banking — expanded rapidly during the 1990s into a global industry of specialist microfinance institutions (MFIs) serving over 100 million clients. The dominant view was that directly assessing achievement of social goals, such as poverty reduction and women's empowerment, was an unnecessary distraction from the commercial expansion of MFIs, needed to reduce their financial dependence on aid. Our research successfully challenged this view by demonstrating that MFIs could effectively monitor their social as well as financial performance. The impact of this has been an increase globally in the number of MFIs doing so, the development of global standards for social performance assessment, and better quality financial services for millions of relatively poor clients.

Submitting Institution

University of Bath

Unit of Assessment

Social Work and Social Policy

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Applied Economics

Enhancing Effectiveness, Structure and Consumer Protection in Financial Regulation

Summary of the impact

Loughborough University research into financial regulation has had a significant and enduring influence on how regulatory bodies are structured and how they use economic analysis. This work has been credited with shaping the groundbreaking culture and methodology of financial regulation in the UK with respect to consumer protection, recognising the special characteristics of retail financial products and contracts and applying cost-benefit and regulatory impact analysis in decision-making processes. It has also played a major role in redefining financial regulatory structure in the UK and South Africa. In addition, the research is now being used to help develop and guide approaches to ensuring high standards of bank regulation and consumer protection across the EU through the European Banking Authority's Banking Stakeholder Group.

Submitting Institution

Loughborough University

Unit of Assessment

Business and Management Studies

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Applied Economics
Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services: Banking, Finance and Investment
Law and Legal Studies: Law

Improving telephone helpline effectiveness using new evidence-based training methods

Summary of the impact

Members of Loughborough University's Helpline Research Unit (LUHRU) have been researching, evaluating and advising on helpline services since 2000. LUHRU research on the exchange of talk between callers and call-takers on telephone helplines has had a significant impact on helpline training and quality control, benefitting helpline organisations, call-takers, and users. The impact has been realised through a) engagement activities that have increased understanding of helpline interactions amongst managers and call-takers, b) training and development activities that have changed call-takers' practices, and c) consultation and evaluations that have changed organisational policy and practice.

Submitting Institution

Loughborough University

Unit of Assessment

Communication, Cultural and Media Studies, Library and Information Management 

Summary Impact Type

Societal

Research Subject Area(s)

Psychology and Cognitive Sciences: Psychology

The GRiST computer decision support system: a new tool for assessing and managing risks associated with mental-health problems.

Summary of the impact

The Galatean Risk and Safety Tool (GRiST) is a clinical decision support system (CDSS) conceived and developed by computer scientists at Aston University from 2000 onwards, where it is being delivered as a cloud-computing service. It is used every day by mental-health practitioners in the NHS, charities, and private hospitals to assess and manage risks associated with mental-health problems. Between 1/1/2011 and 31/7/2013, clinicians provided 285,426 completed patient risk assessments using GRiST. It has changed organisational and clinical processes by its systematic collection of risk information, explicitly linking data to clinical risk judgements, and showing how those judgments are derived. Increasing international awareness has come through presentations to mental-health practitioners in Europe, America, and Australia.

Submitting Institution

Aston University

Unit of Assessment

Computer Science and Informatics

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Medical and Health Sciences: Public Health and Health Services
Economics: Applied Economics

Understanding where money comes from and applying credit creation analysis to portfolio management

Summary of the impact

Research carried out at the University of Southampton into banking, economic growth and development has made Professor Richard Werner a trusted source of advice for economic policy-makers at the highest level, for example for the Financial Services Authority, the Independent Banking Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England. Through articles, books and many media contributions, he has promoted a greater public understanding of economics and the financial crisis. His credit creation analysis has also been adopted by two investment funds in their portfolio management, leading to financial gains for investors, outperforming the FTSE100.

Submitting Institution

University of Southampton

Unit of Assessment

Business and Management Studies

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Applied Economics, Econometrics
Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services: Banking, Finance and Investment

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