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Successful policy formulation and effective action on ozone depletion and climate change, both of which have profound environmental implications, depend on the availability of credible data on atmospheric gases. Research conducted in the School of Chemistry at the University of Bristol between 1992 and 2013 has played a leading role in global efforts to achieve reliable, long-term measurement of climatically important gases such as CO2, CH4 and N2O. When combined with models of atmospheric gas transport, these observations provide an independent means of assessing natural and man-made emissions. This work is used by the UK's Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) for monitoring compliance with international and domestic legislation, identifying priorities for improving inventory accuracy, assessing the UK's progress towards targets set in the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols, evaluating the impact of policy, and informing international negotiations. These data have been central to recent World Meteorological Office (WMO) Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion produced between 2007 and 2010 and to the Nobel Prize-winning Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment of Climate Change published in 2007.
Information on the potential impacts of climate change across the world, and on the effects of policies designed to reduce emissions, is fundamental to inform the development of climate mitigation and adaptation policy. Research conducted at the Unit has been critical to the establishment of a target 80% cut in UK carbon emissions by 2050, as enforced by the Climate Change Act (2008), and provided an affirmation of the relevance of the 2f0b0C global mean temperature rise target central to national and international climate mitigation policy. Research into the global consequences of climate change, particularly for water resources and river flooding, has been used by the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) to assess the impacts of un-mitigated climate change and the effects of different mitigation policy options.
This case study describes the impacts of the work undertaken at Manchester Metropolitan University's (MMU) Centre for Aviation, Transport, and the Environment (CATE), on international and national policy and legislation for reducing CO2 emissions from aviation and shipping. The research has provided a robust technical basis for emissions reductions of CO2 from aviation and the maritime sectors. It has influenced international and national policy development of the International Civil Aviation Organization through their Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (ICAO-CAEP), the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the European Commission (EC), and the UK Committee on Climate Change (UKCCC). Greenhouse gas emission reductions have been pledged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties (COP) as a result of the United Nations Environment Program's (UNEP) influential report "Bridging the Emissions Gap", in which a chapter on aviation and shipping was led by CATE staff ([1], sec.3, numerical references to the research).
Bristol ChemLabS (part of the School of Chemistry) has used School of Chemistry research on the atmosphere (air quality, atmospheric chemistry and the history of greenhouse gases on Earth) to enhance dramatically the quality and uptake of chemistry education in the UK and approximately 20 other nations. This radical advance has been achieved through ChemLabS' outreach activity, which has involved running more than 1,200 events for over 250,000 students over the past six years (and over 1,000 events since 2008). ChemLabS' atmospheric chemistry education packages are now being delivered in other countries, its textbooks/articles have been taken up across Europe, and it has trained more than 500 teachers directly. As a result of its activities, which are grounded in rigorous research, Bristol ChemLabS has been able to document increased interest in science and higher uptake at post-16 level.
University of Southampton research has been crucial in informing and stimulating worldwide debate on geoengineering — the possible large-scale intervention in the Earth's climate system in order to avoid dangerous climate change. Climate modellers at Southampton helped to reveal the potential extent of the fossil fuel "hangover" — the long-term damaging effects expected from anthropogenic CO2 emissions centuries or even millennia after they end. This work led Professor John Shepherd FRS to initiate and chair a Royal Society study, whose 2009 report, Geoengineering the Climate: Science, government and uncertainty, is the global benchmark document on geoengineering strategies, influencing UK and foreign government policy.
Protecting London from the threat of flooding is of prime importance to the nation. Work in the Unit on regional sea-level rise and on the effect of storm surges was used in the Environment Agency's Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) plan to assess potential change in risk. The Unit's work estimated a very unlikely maximum rise in sea level of 2.7m by 2100, considerably lower than the previous worst-case scenario of 4.2m. It confirmed that 90 centimetres was the figure that should be used for developing the plan. TE2100 concluded that a second Thames Barrier (estimated cost £10-20 billion at today's prices) would not be needed not by 2030, but may be needed by 2070. Our results have been used to define procedures for the monitoring of regional sea and Thames water levels over the next few decades, and to review decision-making procedures to ensure that the risk of flooding in London is kept within acceptable levels, while avoiding unnecessary costs
Impacts: I) Enhanced public engagement with, and understanding of, climate mitigation by individuals, delivered through two successful popular science publications and sustained bodies of media and outreach work. II) Public policy formation related to climate change mitigation.
Significance and reach: Impacts of the popular science books include >5,500 sales of a children's book (2009 - 2011) and documented household-level behaviour changes in energy usage. The European Commission issued new directives on energy saving appliances in December 2008.
Underpinned by: Research into the role of individuals in climate change mitigation, undertaken at the University of Edinburgh (2001 onwards).
A comparative methodology to assess the impact of climate change in different countries, implemented by Gosling for a report commissioned by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), informed EU negotiations at the 2011 UN climate change conference in Durban, South Africa. The conference concluded with the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action - a `road map' by which global legal agreement on climate change is to be implemented no later than 2015. For the first time, government ministers and their advisers attending an international conference were able to compare the impact of climate change in different countries, including those where scientific institutions have limited research capacity.
Hope's research in developing the PAGE2002 model of climate change has been used extensively by government agencies in the UK and US, as well as the IMF and the international community in order to improve their calculations for global carbon emissions and setting carbon emissions targets. The model was used in the UK government's Eliasch Review, in order to calculate the costs and benefits of actions to reduce global deforestation; by the US Environmental Protection Agency, in order to calculate the marginal impact of one tonne of CO2 emissions; and the IMF, whose calculations using the PAGE2002 model form the basis for their guidance on carbon pricing.
Research at the University of Exeter identifying potential climate tipping points and developing early warning methods for them has changed the framework for climate change discussion. Concepts introduced by Professor Tim Lenton and colleagues have infiltrated into climate change discussions among policy-makers, economists, business leaders, the media, and international social welfare organisations. Thorough analyses of abrupt, high impact, and uncertain probability events, including estimates of their proximity, has informed government debate and influenced policy around the world. It has also prompted the insurance and reinsurance industry to reconsider their risk portfolios and take into account tipping point events.