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Research carried out by members of the Credit Research Centre (CRC) at the University of Edinburgh has changed the way that credit risk modelling teams in major multinational retail banks think about and model the probability that an applicant will default on a loan. Such models are used monthly to assess the risk associated with most of the 58 million credit cards in the UK and hundreds of millions of credit cards elsewhere in the world. The research has also changed the way banks model a crucial parameter in the amount of capital they have to hold to comply with international regulations, and has allayed their concerns about estimating models based on only samples of previously accepted applicants.
Research by the School's Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) on the monetary transmission mechanism has been influential in improving the design, implementation and effectiveness of the monetary policies of a number of central banks, including the Bank of England, Banque de France and the European Central Bank. The research has influenced changes in the way that official monetary aggregates are measured so as to capture the impact of non-bank financial institutions on the money supply and credit availability, and in better understanding of how monetary policy affects different interest rates. This in turn has allowed for improved control by central banks of their policy targets, and for better understanding of the effects of their monetary policies on economic activity and inflation.
Research on risk assessment of SMEs conducted at the University of Edinburgh Business School (2005-current) in conjunction with the international credit industry has improved understanding of SME behaviour with a view to assisting lending bodies in their decision-making. It has led to refinements in the process of developing commercial credit risk models by providing valuable additional details to enhance existing models. It has developed methodologies now used by some of the leading lenders [text removed for publication] to cut the cost of providing credit, thereby making more credit available to SMEs. The reach of the work has extended across 349 credit practitioners from 38 countries.
As part of our commitment to public sociology (see REF3a), we have prioritised making Edinburgh sociological research on financial crises available to wider audiences: financial practitioners, policy makers and interested members of the general public. This has been primarily via six essays by Donald MacKenzie in the London Review of Books (LRB) and two invited articles in the Financial Times, listed in section 5.3. The impact of this research is in enhancing cultural understanding of finance and contributing to critical public debate. Evidence of its significance and reach includes: (a) public recognition (eg Prospect magazine naming MacKenzie amongst the 25 intellectuals with most impact on the "public conversation" about the financial crisis); (b) articles by others in prominent sources (the Financial Times and Economist) drawing on his work; (c) use of the Edinburgh University research in a major US corporate lawsuit; (d) reprints of the LRB articles eg in French and German public affairs magazines, in the booklets accompanying a Swedish exhibition and a Belgian art video, and in two financial-practitioner magazines.
Credit scoring, the process of estimating the risk of lending to consumers, has traditionally estimated the likelihood of default over a fixed period, usually 12 months. Research carried out at Southampton's School of Management has led to a gradual shift by many financial institutions in the UK and elsewhere towards an alternative method that estimates default over any period. This approach provides accurate risk estimates over any time period. It also allows for the inclusion in the "scorecard" of economic conditions and the lending rates charged — features whose absence from previous scorecards was identified as contributing to the sub-prime mortgage crisis.
Professor Wilson's research has increased understanding of how credit unions have developed in different countries, with the intention of informing policy around these institutions. Such work is especially important in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008, as many countries seek to strengthen their retail financial sectors. The research has had wide-ranging impact internationally on the ways in which policy makers, regulators and practitioners view the sector. Specifically, as part of the Irish Commission on Credit Unions, Wilson's work was taken up in reports which made a raft of recommendations that were later adopted to form the basis for new legislation (Credit Union and Co-operation with Overseas Regulators Act 2012). This new legislation in turn has affected the governance, regulation, stabilisation policy and structure of the credit union sector in Ireland.
A portfolio of research on the structure, conduct and performance of credit unions has led to the following impacts:
The research group investigated UK borrowers' payment protection insurance (PPI) decision making using randomised-groups experiments and a novel cognitive process-tracing methodology. This contributed to the design and interpretation of a consumer survey, a key element of the Office of Fair Trading's 2006 market study of PPI, via the involvement of the principal investigator as consultant. The survey played a major role in the referral of PPI to the competition commission and subsequent major changes implemented by the FSA to the regulation of the PPI market and associated consumer support. This has been of direct benefit to millions of UK borrowers and has also had a major impact on the competitiveness of the UK personal insurance market.
The Personal Finance Research Centre (PFRC) at the University of Bristol conducted a major research programme that shaped UK financial inclusion policy and informed research and policy internationally. PFRC carried out seminal research to measure the level and nature of financial exclusion in the UK. Subsequent studies looked at ways of improving access to banking, credit, insurance and savings that could reduce the `poverty premium' paid by low-income households. PFRC's research directly informed UK central government policy which resulted in the successful achievement of a shared government-banking industry target to halve the number of adults in households without a bank account (from two million to 890,000) and funding to extend affordable credit union loans and savings products to an additional one million low-income people.
Research of Professor Brigo in the areas of credit risk, pricing models for the valuation of counterparty risk, and the development of accurate calibration methods of various credit risk models has generated significant impact both on public policy and on practitioners and professional services. His models were implemented and his calibration methods adopted in the financial industry. The significance attached to his work by the industry also resulted in a collaboration with the German regulator (BAFIN). Further evidence of his impact can be found in the fact that a Court of Law based its analysis in a financial intermediation case on Brigo's research.