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Research at the University of Exeter on the links between the Amazon rainforest and climate change has influenced international climate policy, has directly assisted Brazilian environmental policymakers, and has received international media coverage. The underpinning research spans the vulnerability of the rainforest to anthropogenic climate change and the mechanisms behind the Amazonian droughts of 2005 and 2010. Impact has been achieved by stimulating public debate through the media, by contribution to science-into-policy documents produced by the World Bank and for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and by direct face-to-face interaction with UK and Brazilian policymakers.
Research led by the School of Geography at the University of Leeds has enabled, for the first time, the use of on-the-ground observations to evaluate directly the role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle and to assess their sensitivity to change. Findings from the research have had a significant impact on international debates on the future trajectory of climate change and appropriate policy responses, and are influencing national-scale efforts across the tropics to manage forests in the face of climate change and to reduce carbon emissions resulting from deforestation [D, E, G, H, J]. The success of this Leeds-led initiative has been achieved through the extensive network of scientists involved in this global forest observatory: more than 250 scientists from over 50 institutions across more than 30 countries are now involved.
Impacts: I) Development of carbon credit certification schemes, including the expansion by the Gold Standard Foundation into land-use and forestry and the creation of the Natural Forest Standard by Ecometrica Ltd (both in 2012). II) Enhanced cross-sector collaboration for the quantification of forest-loss risks and implications for financing risks, through the 2011 creation of a Forest Finance Risk Network (FFRN).
Significance and reach: The Gold Standard Foundation represents nine forestry projects worldwide (benefiting >8,500 people) and over 1.8million ha. of Brazilian land is managed through two Natural Forest Standard projects. The FFRN connects 80 member organizations globally.
Underpinned by: Research into carbon emissions associated with forest-loss, undertaken at the University of Edinburgh (2005 onwards).
Results from climate physics research at the University of Oxford have demonstrated that targets for cumulative carbon emissions, rather than greenhouse gas concentrations, are a more effective approach to limiting future climate change. This new approach and the resulting `trillionth tonne' concept have had substantial political and economic implications. Impacts since 2009 include (a) stimulus to policy developments; (b) influence on the business decisions of Shell e.g. to invest in a $1.35bn carbon capture and storage facility; and (c) significant public and media debate with a global reach.
Dr Luiz Aragão in Geography at Exeter has, since 2008, led research focused on quantifying the impacts of environmental change on fire risk and carbon dynamics in Amazonian forests. This has had a number of impacts. First, research into drought frequency and intensity and fire occurrence has directly informed the design and implementation of environmental policy and regulation in relation to a `zero fire' policy by the State of Acre in Brazil. Second, the research has led to the development of new monitoring tools to assist policy makers in understanding the interactions between climate, ecosystems, and human health in Amazonia. Third, research into carbon emissions has influenced methodological development within the United Nations REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) programme in Colombia. Finally, Dr Aragão's research has been widely disseminated in media outlets, thus increasing awareness of the general public and policy makers on drought and fire issues in Amazonia.
The United Kingdom is today better adapted to climate risks as a result of a sustained programme of research completed by the School into the impacts of climate change on ecological, social and infrastructural systems. This work has had significant and continuing impact on the design and implementation of UK (and international) climate adaptation strategies and policies, especially with regard to flooding, the built environment and water and coastal management. Decision-support tools (such as climate scenarios and options appraisal) and direct policy advice produced by the School have been used by numerous public and private sector organisations to inform and guide their adaptation strategies and investments.
Research at the University of Exeter identifying potential climate tipping points and developing early warning methods for them has changed the framework for climate change discussion. Concepts introduced by Professor Tim Lenton and colleagues have infiltrated into climate change discussions among policy-makers, economists, business leaders, the media, and international social welfare organisations. Thorough analyses of abrupt, high impact, and uncertain probability events, including estimates of their proximity, has informed government debate and influenced policy around the world. It has also prompted the insurance and reinsurance industry to reconsider their risk portfolios and take into account tipping point events.
A novel large-area process-based crop simulation model developed at the University of Reading and published in 2004 has been used to explore how climate change may affect crop production and global food security. The results of Reading's modelling work have been used as evidence to support the case for action on climate change for international agreements and used by the UK Government to inform various areas of policy and, in particular, to help frame its position on climate change at international negotiations. The database and knowledge from this model also informed the development of Reading's innovative web-based tool that locates sites where the climate today is similar to the projected climate in another location - providing insight into potential adaptation practices for crop production in the future by linking to present-day examples. This tool has been used to inform and train farmers and policy-makers in developing countries and has supported policy implementation of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture.
Knowledge of the changing global temperature has contributed to an international political agreement being reached about the over-arching objective of climate change mitigation policies. The School's scientists have made a crucial contribution to one of only three datasets that reveal changes to the world's average temperature over the last 150 years. These data have been central to each of the five Assessment Reports of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), upon which successive rounds of international climate change negotiations relied and which led, in 2009, to the adoption of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius as an agreed international policy goal.
Hope's research in developing the PAGE2002 model of climate change has been used extensively by government agencies in the UK and US, as well as the IMF and the international community in order to improve their calculations for global carbon emissions and setting carbon emissions targets. The model was used in the UK government's Eliasch Review, in order to calculate the costs and benefits of actions to reduce global deforestation; by the US Environmental Protection Agency, in order to calculate the marginal impact of one tonne of CO2 emissions; and the IMF, whose calculations using the PAGE2002 model form the basis for their guidance on carbon pricing.