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This case study describes impact resulting from research on assessing the performance of credit scoring models conducted by the Consumer Credit / Retail Banking Research Group of the Mathematics Department at Imperial College. The group's work has influenced both high-level industry strategies for developing scoring models, and also low-level performance measures for which such models are developed, refined and evaluated. We describe examples of companies or bodies that have benefitted from improved credit scoring models, including Prescient Models (a US credit scoring company), Experian and the US Office of the Comptroller of Currency. The group has established a very significant reputation for a wide range of commercially valuable work in this area — to the extent that the group received the major Credit Collections and Risk industry award for Contributions to the Credit Industry in 2012.
This case study describes the international impact of research carried out by Swansea criminologists in partnership with criminal justice agencies in the Channel Island of Jersey. This has included work on risk and need assessment and, in a linked study, on supervision skills used by probation staff. This research has a documented impact with international reach, mainly since 2008, affecting policy and practice in Jersey, Scotland, the Irish Republic, the Isle of Man, Malta, Sweden and Denmark, and (in relation to the skills study only) England and Wales, and has attracted interest in the USA, Australia and Portugal. Its significance lies mainly in the fact that the risk and need assessment study has led to structured and evidence-based assessment of (currently) about 15,000 offenders per year, or about 45,000 to date, in jurisdictions where no structured assessment methods were previously used. About 35,000 of these represent impact since the start of 2008. In addition, the study of supervision skills has contributed since 2008 to the measurement and development of skills in offender supervision in England, Wales, Scotland and Jersey. The research has also been used extensively by a training and consultancy company and contributed to the establishment and growth of the research and practice development network CREDOS (Collaboration of Researchers for the Effective Development of Offender Supervision).
Policy on offender management has been changed in several areas through statistical research on criminal careers. The research has:
a) crucially influenced an Information Tribunal appeal case on the retention of police records, where five Police Authorities were appealing against a decision of the Information Commissioners.
b) influenced the research methodology and policy of the Home Office towards the retention of DNA profiles for those arrested but not found guilty, and contributed to a new Act of Parliament.
c) through the development of a reconviction predictor tool for offenders (OGRS3), improved court pre-sentence reports, and provided a mechanism for new policy on payment by results.
Research into more accurate methods for measuring deprivation and `need' at the neighbourhood, `small area level', has led to older methods being abandoned. This has shaped government policy and practice, leading to the UK, local and central government changing where, geographically, to focus millions of pounds of spend. Our methods (Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and Health Poverty Index (HPI)) are now used extensively in public, political and media discourses as the main reference point for any discussion of the distribution of need across the UK. The IMD has now also been adopted by the governments of South Africa, Nambia and Oman.
Research at the Centre for Urban Policy Studies (CUPS) at the University of Manchester (UoM) has contributed significantly to the improvement and targeting of resources to deprived urban areas. Through the development of a matrix approach, this work has both informed and transformed the UK Government's `deprivation index', the measure used to direct resources to areas most in need. More recently, a functional typology for use in the classification of deprived neighbourhoods has been developed. This was subsequently used by central government, local authorities and city-regions to better inform the nature and scope of regeneration initiatives.
Since 2001, Professor Grubin has led trials to test whether polygraph assessment could help case officers manage high-risk sex offenders released on licence in England and Wales. A three-year study of mandatory assessment which ended in 2012 demonstrated conclusively that polygraph testing helped case managers evaluate the risk posed by offenders and decide how best to protect the public from harm. A policy of mandatory polygraph assessment of all high-risk sex offenders on parole in England and Wales was approved by ministers in summer 2012, and procurement is underway for a national polygraph testing service for high-risk sex offenders.
Research by the Oxford Public Policy Group addresses a widespread concern among governments, international organisations, and NGOs that the pervasive use of targets and performance indicators in public service management can have important distortive effects. The group's work clarifies the different effects and shortcomings of performance indicators and develops a pioneering approach to assess their reliability. The research has been influential in generating better informed approaches to the use of indicators and targets in public service management — in the UK and by international institutions — and has shaped the wider policy and public debate.
The Operator Functional State (OFS) describes the psychological capacity of an operator to deliver safe and effective performance. Expertise in OFS theory and methodology was developed at LJMU via studies of driving behaviour and aviation control. When the European Space Agency wished to prioritise issues surrounding OFS in the context of space exploration, they recruited an expert from LJMU. The resulting discussion led to the identification of key issues to maintain operational skill and reduce accident likelihood during long duration space missions. The expertise developed at LJMU has influenced the European programme for space exploration over the coming decade.
A better understanding of electronic monitoring (EM) and improvements and innovation in policy and practice have resulted from research conducted by Professor Anthea Hucklesby. An important question facing criminal justice policy makers and practitioners is how to increase compliance with community-based sanctions to improve their effectiveness as well as the confidence of the courts and the public. The research addresses this agenda by highlighting factors which influence offenders' compliance with EM curfew orders and by recommending ways in which compliance might be increased. The research reinforced government confidence that EM should be used widely and shaped the future direction of EM policy in England and Wales. The research also brought about changes in the operation of EM within G4S, resulted in the setting up of pilot projects, provided for a safer staff working environment and informed the work of Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Probation.
A research team at GCU, led by Professor Liz Gilchrist, exploring aspects of intimate partner violence (IPV) has had a significant impact on IPV practice. The research linked two traditionally conflicting approaches to IPV: the victim/survivor based research emphasising gender in IPV, and the forensic psychology approach focussing on characteristics and criminogenic need in offenders.This has significantly changed practice nationally and internationally, including leading to the development of parenting interventions for men convicted of IPV in Scotland; restructured interventions for victims and offenders in New Zealand and the assessment of dynamic factors for those accessing IPV programmes in Scotland.