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Impact type: Public Policy
Significance: The research provided evidence for formulation of government policies to ameliorate poor air quality, to which fine particulate matter (PM2.5), O3 and NO2 are the most important contributors; PM2.5 alone reduces average life expectancy in the UK by 6 months and costs £9bn-£20bn a year. The research has been incorporated into UK national guidance and policy-evidence documents for Defra, the Health Protection Agency, and the Environment Agencies.
Beneficiaries are the public and the environment.
Research; date; attribution: EaStCHEM research (1995-2011) (a) established reliable techniques to measure NO2 for a national protocol, and (b) quantified the impact of pollutant emissions on PM2.5 and O3 concentrations, and on hospital admissions and deaths. Heal (EaStCHEM) led the research and wrote, collaboratively in some cases, the reports and the work cited.
Reach: UK wide.
Air pollution poses significant threats to both the environment and to human health and the World Health Organization estimates that 800,000 deaths per year could be related to ambient air pollution. Formulating air quality legislation and understanding its effect on human health requires accurate information on ambient concentrations of air pollution and how these translate into exposures actually experienced by individuals (personal exposures).
Our research provides a framework for estimating personal exposures for specific susceptible sub-populations, such as the elderly and those suffering from respiratory diseases. This framework also provides novel means of assessing uncertainty associated with the estimates of exposures. Furthermore, it allows changes in exposures to be assessed under hypothetical scenarios reflecting potential regulatory changes.
These models were used in the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recent review of ozone standards that resulted in a reduction in the statutory limits of ozone in the United States. The EPA stated that "These changes will improve both public health protection and the protection of sensitive trees and plants" [C].
Mineral separation by froth flotation is the largest tonnage separation process in the world, and is used to recover the very small fraction (<0.5%) of valuable mineral from the mined ore. Typically, 5-15% of the valuable minerals are not recovered due to sub-optimal process settings, most important of which is the air rate. A methodology to determine the optimal air rate range to use, Peak Air Recovery (PAR), was developed by the Froth and Foam Research Group at Imperial College London.
Anglo American Platinum produces 40% of the world's platinum. They use the PAR methodology on all their flotation plants to establish to air rate control limits, tightening the operating range and improving the separation performance. Rio Tinto annually produce 300 000 tons of copper and 500 000 oz gold from their Kennecott Copper mine. They have implemented PAR as a control strategy, and statistical comparative tests have shown an increase in copper and gold recovery from this mine alone of the order of 1%, with a nominal value of approximately $30m per annum.
With global demand for energy ever increasing, environmental impact has become a major priority for the oil industry. A collaboration between researchers at the University of Glasgow and Shell Global Solutions has developed GWSDAT (GroundWater Spatiotemporal Data Analysis Tool). This easy-to-use interactive software tool allows users to process and analyse groundwater pollution monitoring data efficiently, enabling Shell to respond quickly to detect and evaluate the effect of a leak or spill. Shell estimates that the savings gained by use of the monitoring tool exceed $10m over the last three years. GWSDAT is currently being used by around 200 consultants across many countries (including the UK, US, Australia and South Africa) with potentially significant impacts on the environment worldwide.
Poor air quality is an important public health issue especially in cities where traffic is the major source of pollution. It is estimated that 29,000 people die prematurely in the UK each year, and 310,000 in Europe, because of air pollution. King's research, based on the London Air Quality Network (LAQN), including emissions modelling and vehicle profiling, indicated that improvements in air quality could be achieved by restricting the entrance of specific vehicle classes into urban areas. These research outputs were utilised by the Mayor of London to introduce the Congestion Charging Scheme (CCS), from 2003 to the present, and the London Low Emission Zone (LEZ), from 2008 to the present. This research, together with King's ongoing evaluation of air quality and the impact of traffic control schemes in London, has created increasing international interest in this method of pollution control resulting in the adoption of similar interventions across Europe.
Forests are economically, recreationally and ecologically important, providing timber and wildlife habitat and acting as a carbon sink, among many ecosystem services. They are therefore extremely valuable to society, and it is crucial to ensure that they remain healthy. A statistical model has been developed in Bath to estimate spatio-temporal trends of forest health from monitoring data. This work has led directly to more efficient data collection, and to new and improved interventions to mitigate the impact of pollution and climate change (such as soil liming to control acidity and reforestation regimes). The methodology has been adopted for official reporting in the yearly 'Waldzustandsbericht (Report on Forest Condition)' [A-E] of the German state Baden-Wuerttemberg (BW), which is 39% forested, an area of 14,000km2 with an estimated stock value of 17 billion US$.
A sustained programme of epidemiological research at St George's, spanning 20 years, has informed air pollution control policies in the UK and internationally. Time-series studies of the acute health effects of daily fluctuations in air pollutants, initially in London, were extended to Europe-wide collaborations, trans-Atlantic comparisons and studies in Asian cities. Publication bias has been explored systematically in meta-analyses of published time-series results, and the adverse effects of different particulate fractions compared in a UK setting. This evidence base has contributed substantially to the current UK Air Quality Strategy and informs ongoing debates about health impacts of shorter-lived "greenhouse" pollutants.
In the UK, 20-25% of the population (around 15 million people) sufferer from allergic rhinitis (hay fever) resulting in about 4 million `sick days' per year. Research undertaken by the National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit (NPARU) over a period of 20 years has resulted in the development of a national pollen forecasting system for the UK which has had direct benefits on the health and wellbeing of hay fever sufferers. This research has also raised awareness of the importance of pollen information for sufferers, fed into policy on allergy services (and subsequently practice of these services), underpinned training of health professionals, and informed clinical trials of anti-allergy products and devices.
Evidence from research at UWE Bristol has enabled UK local and national governments and international governments (South Africa, Nigeria) to enhance their processes and procedures for managing air quality. UWE researchers have contributed to the policy and technical guidance issued by UK Governments, and they have directly advised the UK Government and devolved national and London administrations on legislation, regulation and official guidance. The research has contributed to the widespread recognition of the spatial extent of air quality problems, ensuring continued support of air quality management at a local level. The research activity and experience gained has been shared through international agencies, learned societies and interest groups. This extends to the EU, China, Brazil, and India, and specifically the Republic of South Africa through the development of the National Framework for Air Quality Management and in Nigeria through collaboration with the National Space Research and Development Agency.
The WinBUGS software (and now OpenBUGS software), developed initially at Cambridge from 1989-1996 and then further at Imperial from 1996-2007, has made practical MCMC Bayesian methods readily available to applied statisticians and data analysts. The software has been instrumental in facilitating routine Bayesian analysis of a vast range of complex statistical problems covering a wide spectrum of application areas, and over 20 years after its inception, it remains the leading software tool for applied Bayesian analysis among both academic and non-academic communities internationally. WinBUGS had over 30,000 registered users as of 2009 (the software is now open-source and users are no longer required to register) and a Google search on the term `WinBUGS' returns over 205,000 hits (over 42,000 of which are since 2008) with applications as diverse as astrostatistics, solar radiation modelling, fish stock assessments, credit risk assessment, production of disease maps and atlases, drug development and healthcare provider profiling.